Lubricant Consumption Expected to Increase Slightly

Noria news wires
Tags: synthetic lubricants, automotive

According to a new report, a marginal increase in commercial lubricant consumption is expected through 2016 based on estimations of a 3-percent increase in tonnage carried by private fleet operators in the United States.

"Opportunities in Lubricants, 2011-2013: North American Market Analysis - Volume I: Commercial Automotive" from Kline & Company also showed a surge in on-highway activity during the latter half of 2010 that continued well into 2011.

Similarly, the lackluster performance of the construction industry between 2008 and 2010 has begun to show signs of a rebound. However, increased service implementation of longer drain interval oils due to a higher penetration of synthetics, growth in oil analysis practices and an overall increase in commercial vehicles’ mechanical efficiency mean that commercial lubricant consumption is expected to fractionally increase by a compound annual growth rate of just 0.4 to 1.0 percent through 2016.

Shell remains the leading supplier of lubricants in North America and accounts for an estimated 12 percent of the market share in 2011, followed by ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP.

With the growing realization of the multifarious benefits of synthetics and their consequent steady uptake, value is rising while overall demand is being suppressed through inherently longer service intervals. Similarly, oil analysis is being increasingly performed during routine preventive maintenance to provide meaningful and accurate information on lubricant and machine condition. By tracking oil analysis sample results over the life of a vehicle, lubricant consumption is optimized.

While re-refined engine oils are slowly making their way into the commercial automotive segment, a majority of respondents who participated in the survey for the research cited concerns about original equipment manufacturer (OEM) approvals of such grades and the possible non-availability on the highways as major deterrents. In particular, the U.S. commercial trucking industry generally appears not yet prepared to accept re-refined oils, with a majority of equipment/maintenance managers interviewed conceding that reliability and logistics issues are prime considerations and impediments.

A number of farmers and farm cooperatives interviewed for the study showed minimal interest in using re-refined oils, believing that lubricants made from re-refined base stocks are of an inferior quality.

"An immediate connect can be made by the way of marketing re-refined oils as 'sustainable' products and consequently more easily find favor from the farmer community," says Kline's Tushar Raval. "Another and certainly critical way of successfully propagating the acceptance of these grades is by way of approvals and recommendations from OEMs such as John Deere."

With the imminent launch of the PC-11 HDMO category by 2016, Kline sought in its research to assess the current level of awareness and knowledge of this significant change. The general consensus is that the commercial segment is moderately aware of PC-11 and intends to adopt and comply with OEM engine oil recommendations as applicable to their respective fleets and operations when PC-11 becomes a reality. In the interim, it’s simply business as usual.

Kline's "Opportunities in Lubricants, 2011-2013: North American Market Analysis - Volume I: Commercial Automotive" is an in-depth analysis of automotive finished lubricant products, end-use industries/trade classes, major suppliers and market trends in the United States plus summary coverage of Canada and Mexico. For more information, visit www.klinegroup.com.


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